U.S. intelligence raises fears of civil unrest and state breakdown in Israel ahead of October 27 elections.
One of the deepest fractures in Israeli politics has emerged not over opposition to the country’s war crimes—but over who is expected to fight and who is exempt.
In case anyone’s confused the contradictions include regrets over what’s been done in Gaza.
Yup. Young men pretend to be Haredi for a few years to avoid service so now they only have the ultra theological nuts to draft from.
It’s:
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I want war crimes done by ME.
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I want war crimes, but just enjoy watching not risking my life on them.
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CIA reports what Isreal wants them to report. So Netanyahu wants you to think the country is close to collapse. So that he can justify emergency powers to keep himself in power indefinitely.
Seems like many prominent politicians are aging, nearing the end of their lives and just want to go out with a bang.
I wanna go out with a bang. Not explosives, just with a pretty lady. (Like my wife)
Blink twice if she’s in the room with you
Well? Did you see? :)
I think they meant your eyes, but that works too.
But I did blink with my eyes! (it’s just hard to see over the internet in text)
Chill with the blinking already, you’re keeping us all awake
How like your wife does she need to be?
Real answer? I can’t imagine a scenario where this would happen, wife or anyone else. I won’t bore you with my health problems, but very few people facing terminal health issues probably end up having much good sex. lol.
Half-real answer? I mean, technically I’m poly, although not really “practicing”. So technically, probably doesn’t have to be very much like my wife.
Although given a choice between her or a stranger… probably go with her. lol.
Half-way serious answers to silly questions amuse me, thus my extraneous reply :)
I would also like to go out with your wife, can be at the same time, no judgement
Well, as long as we can coordinate on the dying bit, too, of course. ;-)
Death by Eiffel Tower?
Well, that’s a different kind of banging altogether!
“Who sought notoriety by destroying…”
That son-of-a-bitch! It worked!
Yeah, the CIA isn’t just going to give out info for the sake of giving out info. I dont know what the thought is, but there’s something behind it.
You mean they don’t just call up Fox News and give out the latest?
The central isreal agency?
That’s what I said, out loud, as the comments loaded, right at the instant before this popped up.
Don’t threaten me with a good time.
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Well given the fact it’s currently effectively a dictatorship I can’t see how it can degrade any further.
Israel has around 90 nuclear warheads with the materials to build up to about 200. The only thing I can imagine being worse is if idiots even more unhinged than their current government acquire and use them. Yes, the bar is that low.
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Yes, because disregard all historical background as everyone knows without western enlightenment all brown people revert to their natural state, being terrorists.
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No, you show me examples of
A power vacuum leads to extremely powerful terrorist groups forming who take over the region
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So you’re saying that worst case, nothing changes? Israel is already an extremely powerful terrorist group with nuclear weapons lol
There’s no way the UN wouldn’t intervene given they did it before.
I would be shocked if the UN did anything substantial here. If they do anything, they’d probably re-declare Mandatory Palestine and give it to Donald Trump.
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Except for all their neighbours they’re illegally occupying and all the countries of the region
As they have sown, so shall they reap.
Reap the whirlwind.
Well, I predict LOTS of civil wars in LOTS of places, especially as the environment collapses and basic needs aren’t met.
If that actually happens, the evangelicals and Millennialists are going to flip out.
Time to stock up on popcorn.
Definite popcorn time watching those two groups respond…
I had to read it twice because the first time I read “millenials” and was like wtf? Then I reread it and saw it was saying millenialists.
After I posted it, I realized that it could easily be misread but I don’t know of another term to use to describe Christians who believe in a post-apocalyptic millenium of peace & happiness (as long as you believe in Jesus, that is).
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Total collapse? Oh, no. Golly, how awful! I mean, gosh and gee whillikers, I sure hope that doesn’t happen. I hope it a lot.
Oh, wait …
The August report, titled “Fracture From Within,” was compiled by experts in the CIA’s Red Cell, according to two U.S. sources who described the contents of the report to Drop Site News. The Red Cell, which is the unit responsible for providing “alternative analysis” within the agency, produced the assessment through a combination of open source information and U.S. intelligence… The CIA’s “red teams” are tasked with developing analysis and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and expose groupthink or blind spots that can take hold within the intelligence apparatus.
Basically, this is “what’s the weirdest shit that is kinda plausible if things don’t go how our consensus expects.” Useful I assume, but by definition unlikely.
Yeah, this is just some red-teaming of possibilities.
Let’s hope that happens soon! Holding my thumbs!
Over what? Half the country likes genocide and the other half likes genocide, too? All these terrorist countries like Israel, the USA and Russia can all go to hell.
One side wants to genocide harder while the other prefers a more “civilized” genocide.
I wish they’d genocide each other for once ffs
I think it’s more of a one side wants to genocide and participate in it and the other prefers to just watch and not enlist and risks itself.
This is exactly what I thought. What are they going to fight about exactly? Who gets to genocide the locals first? In Israel you have the far right and the farrer right
“As we’re moving forward with further integrating our military-industrial capacity with them, there’s deep frustration that we’re doing this for a country that dragged us into a war we’re losing, a country that spies on us.”
Then fucking stop!
The CIA also spent 13 years hunting Radovan Karadžić, a Serbian who was living a public life in Serbia.
The last place youd expect!
Could but very unlikely. Guess cia needs to consider everything. Also we need to stop using civil war to mean civil unrest.
Yes, very forward looking and specualtive…
Like assassinating Castro with exploding cigars. .
Huh they don’t want Israel to collapse because reasons.
That would be the weirdest possible turn of events.
And like, every single supporter of Israel would be stumped, because they would need to think about which Israel to back.
Absolute cinema. Good idea for a fictional alternate timeline.
Yeah if you think Lebanon’s political breakup was messy…
This would make that look like child’s play.
Yeah.
I know it’s natural to feel schadenfreude at the prospect of state collapse in Israel, but fwiw, I don’t look forward to it with any joy.
If this is the next phase, so be it. But it will be very, very ugly. The violent collapse of Israel will not lead to relief for Palestinians in the short term.
Still, I’ve said for years: what Israel is doing to the Palestinians they are doing to themselves. Watching the corrosion of Israeli society, their violence has always looked like a manic frenzy of mass-self harm.
I’ve said for years: what Israel is doing to the Palestinians they are doing to themselves.
wow. that is honestly the first original thought I have heard about the ongoing troubles between these 2 groups of people fighting over the same land, both claiming it to be their own, exclusively…
something in the same spirit, but from a different era, different war…
The violent collapse of Israel will not lead to relief for Palestinians in the short term.
How so? Presumably they won’t have time to kill Palestinians if they’re too busy killing each other, and while that is a gruesome thought it’s not more gruesome than what’s already happening.
My suspicion is that a collapse in the Israeli state would look a lot like the present, spiraling out of anyone’s control: the settler terrorists would further ratchet up attacks in the West Bank; soldiers in the West Bank would harass and kill more brazenly, without fear of even the limited accountability that can come from a toothless denouncement or a suspension. Soldiers in Gaza might move from checkpoints and bombing runs to militia pogroms driving through streets gunning down civilians. The limited protections for the relatively privileged Arabs & non-Jews within the '48 borders could evaporate: mobs dragging women from their homes for sexual violence and murder in the daylit streets. And all of this would likely be in a shroud of fog, as the limited journalistic capacity that occasionally breaks through to international attention is drowned out by attention on riots in the imperial core of the nation.
In the long term, this could be a step towards a better future. But in the short term I would expect a shift from organized military-led genocide to a more traditional form of rabid mass ethnic killing.
CIA wants this.
It’s hard to believe, but Israel currently has restraint. Yes, they’re slow-motion genociding the Palestinians in a grindingly cruel manner, but the reason it’s slow-motion is because they have endless debates and factions and desire not to completely rip their masks off while the rest of the world watches and could maybe react on some level.
If Israel turns into full blown civil war all that restraint goes away. If you’re already at the point where you’re willing to gun down fellow Jews, why not mow down a bunch of Palestinian refugees along the way? If you’re not even in control of all of Israel, where can you move Palestinians to get them out of your way? Just kill 'em.
I have no idea what is best in the short term. I have no idea what is best in the long term. Israel is just fucked. I wish there was some way for all the people who want to kill each other to just go ahead and do that without everyone else getting trapped in the crossfire.
Israel has nukes. Civil wars often involve some previously unauthorised score-settling by various elements who are no longer suppressed.
They’d pick the worst one. They already did, after all.
