Ya, he’s not gonna be found “safe”. The last few nights have been well below freezing in much of Virginia. With a gun and a lack of cold weather gear, there’s not a lot of safe outcomes available. Though I’d guess he hasn’t noticed the drop in temperature.

While that is possible, I’d seriously doubt it happening. Wagner’s run at Moscow seemed like the best opportunity for that to happen, but it just stalled out. I’m still surprised Prighozin, stopped his push short of Moscow. I was not surprised afterwards when an airplane he was on suffered “technical difficulties”. But, between the failure of Wagner to remove Putin and them now being rolled into the Russian military, I think Putin has done a lot to consolidate his control over the armed forces, exactly to prevent that outcome.

Ya, it could happen, I don’t believe it’s likely.

While I like the sentiment, unless the EU is interested in a WWII style total war and invasion of Russia, Putin is never going to be held to account for the invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian government (Read: Putin and his cronies) are not going to agree to hand Putin over to The Hague. Even if the current war ends on favorable terms for Ukraine, that is never going to look anything like the German or Japanese surrenders. At best, this war ends with Russian military exhaustion and withdrawal. More like the end of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan. There will be no push to Moscow, no mass bombing of Russian factories or cities. Just Russian soldiers packing up and going home, leaving death and devastation behind for the survivors of their invasion to deal with.

Any negotiated peace is going to look pretty similar. It will stop the death sooner at the cost of giving Russia something it’s willing to accept. That’s the way negotiations work. If you want to force the other side to accept your terms, without any compromise, that’s what war is for. Since it seems neither the EU nor the US are willing to engage in a direct confrontation with Russia, then the only choice to end this war early is compromise. And Putin facing accountability is almost certainly not going to be on the table.

The Felon in Chief can bluster all he likes. When people don’t have the money to spend, they ain’t gonna spend it.

This is also why the Trump administration is considering helicopter money checks. These types of hand-outs can give people a sense of having money. The problem is that it ultimately drives inflation. We saw this with the stimulus checks during the pandemic. Arguably, something was needed then to support people during an actual emergency. But part of the inflation problems we have now can be traced back to those checks.

“Tariff” checks may give a short boost to holiday buying. But the long term damage is not going to be worth it to anyone but Trump. And that assumes the short term benefits last through the 2026 midterms.

They are still legal tender, the Mint just isn’t producing them anymore. If things stay that way, eventually they will just become rarer and rarer until no one really sees them anymore (we stopped caring about them decades ago). Why bother with some convoluted, expensive plan to do anything about them? It’s really a problem that will solve itself for the cost of someone a bank occasionally delivering a bag of them to the Mint as they do with any currency which is old and should be taken out of circulation.

ICE was formed in 2002, following the attacks which destroyed the World Trade Center. Like basically everything the US did in the wake of that attack (e.g. Patriot Act) this has been an absolute disaster and should be rolled back.

So, who’s got the inside track on which company is paying the largest bribe for the contract? If tax dollars are going to be diverted to line Trump’s pockets, we might as well catch some of that money by riding the stock bump when the contract is announced. Maybe get some puts on the stock if we manage to elect a less corrupt President in four years.

“the arrestment failed,” said the official

I wonder at the nature of that failure. I’d immediately think this means “the cable broke” or “the hook broke”. But, it could also mean “the pilot missed the cable and failed to respond correctly”.

It’s that “middle ground” where Russia gets half of Ukraine’s territory and the US gets all of their mineral rights?

Molotov and Ribbentrop nod in approval.

Ya, the headline is kinda bullshit. The SecDef is always going to be a top espionage target. The real problem is that, had anyone else who holds a security clearance been this slipshod with classified material, they would be in jail now. The two tiered nature for accountability for security violations demonstrates deep problems with the entire system.

They weren’t already? The US spies on its allies. And those allies spy on the US. That anyone would only be figuring this out now is kinda sad. Any foreign travel (for whatever definition of “foreign” applies to you), should be made with the assumption that someone will be attacking your electronic devices. If you don’t need all of your personal/work data on the device you have with you, don’t keep it there. If you do need some of that data, have a way to get it over the internet, preferably using a VPN but at least using encryption. For the extra paranoid, you’ll need a way to verify the OS, applications and certificates of the device accessing the data. And that still leaves hardware based attacks as a risk.

Uh, no shit. State backed espionage groups are targeting the communications channels used by their primary targets. What are you going to tell me next? That water is wet and fire is hot? If the US government started using IP over Avian Carrier (RFC1149) you can bet that the GRU would start up a program to intercept the carriers.

foreign intelligence partners … will curtail what they share with the US

Wouldn’t be surprised if domestic intelligence agencies start curtailing what they share. The fact is that a TS/SCI isn’t that hard to get, if you aren’t a complete fuck up. And even folks who have been a complete fuck up in the past can still get one, if they stopped being a fuck up long enough ago. That many of the folks in Trump’s cabinet would be denied a clearance speaks to the level of fuck uppery that they have been up to recently. Gonna be an interesting four years with the Felon in Chief.