NoiseColor

It would be, that’s why I think Russians won’t be looking for a direct confrontation. They need something that’s big enough to cause some panic, but not not enough for the big countries to start anything. Something they can blame someone else for. Or go for a non NATO country like Moldova.

Ok, whatever you say.

Escalate just so much that NATO won’t act and cracks might form in nato. That was the strategy all along. Maybe this is a part of that.

Haha. I don’t think you have any idea what you are talking about.

They are not fucking idiots? They absolutely are fucking idiots. And they are being backed into a corner. A lot of stuff can happen.

I can speculate it could be to frame this war as a war against nato, or to get a reason for full scale mobilization, or to get a reason to use nuclear weapons.

That may sound cheer worthy, but considering they very obviously can’t handle even 1 front, attacking another country would have to be for a different reason, a more problematic reason.

Thats not defeatism.

And that’s not sweeping the floor. That’s some weird smugness of being right while the house falls into disrepair. Worth nothing.

That’s true, but I don’t see it working. All these comedians/talk show hosts have been doing this for decades and that did nothing. Nothing. The opposite actually, normalizing abhorrent things by trivializing them for (a lot of times) cheap laughs.

What is going on is not a media matter for multi-millionaires to joke about on the billionaire tv networks.

That’s all cute, but what good will it do?

The right don’t care. Every minimal pressure they can exert will at minimal, at very minimal make people self censor themselves just a little bit more. That is what they want and they are succeeding marvellously.

Slovenia was first 🙂, but I think they weren’t definitive about it. Probably they wanted to wait so they wouldn’t be the only one.

Did he deserve to die? I don’t think it’s fair to say that. He was a bad person and had a lot of bad influence over way too many people.

But even if he was reprehensible, killing him will not do anyone any good. It will just be used for further radicalization. Not that they need any excuse.

It’s also a matter of local politics. You can’t show you can be bullied. It’s understandable. I think it’s important for Modi to show he’s the man, but he will do what’s right when the time comes.

Security guarantees are the only thing. Ukrainians don’t want to die for dombas. They are fighting to have a free future.

But also Putin doesn’t want just dombas. That’s the thing.

Yes, security guarantees such as something similar to NATO or US and EU forces at the border. That is a security guarantee. Nothing else would do. That’s obvious.

Ukraine would give land for that. The point is, Russia doesn’t want or need the land. They want to project power, not gain 0.05% to the territory they already have.

Its not about land, it’s about security guarantees. Ukraine doesn’t really need the lands in question and Russia don’t really want it. Ukraine wins with security guarantees and Russia won’t allow it, because that means they are not a super power and cannot project power not even to a neighboring country.

Yes, that was worthless. NATO or EU military forces on the border would be a different cookie.

NATO is not a realistic option.

I think they would accept EU with EU military forces at the new border.

Gracias.

Realistically, Ukraine only really wants security guarantees. That is THE deal. They would be willing to ceed Crimea and dombas. I think. I mean maybe not, I don’t have any special insight. But like Donbas, it’s not a place people in other parts of Ukraine would be willing to die for in masses (I think).

The main thing is security guarantees and I think it’s PRO how they are running their diplomacy.

I think if they were offered NATO, they would ceed a lot for that.

But… That’s exactly what Russians don’t want. They want influence. They want direct influence that would show they are a real super power. Which by now, everybody sees they are not, but grasping for straws… influence over demilitarized Ukraine would kind of show they are a super power. Not really, but a bit for their own population.

However, there is no way in hell they can get that. Because even now Ukraine is too strong for them to take any city of significance. Even if US stops sending weapons altogether.

So… The peace… We aren’t close, unless Putin can convince people internally that they won , when they don’t… but, then he has to worry all about the postwar economy which would be described in several rude words.

It’s a truly bad situation.